Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 7.833062e-05 0.000093 0.000109 0.000128 0.000148 0.000170 0.000195
2025-02-02 6.063969e-05 0.000080 0.000102 0.000129 0.000161 0.000196 0.000238
2025-02-09 4.915461e-05 0.000070 0.000096 0.000127 0.000166 0.000210 0.000265
2025-02-16 4.312321e-05 0.000066 0.000095 0.000133 0.000180 0.000235 0.000304
2025-02-23 3.698857e-05 0.000061 0.000092 0.000133 0.000187 0.000250 0.000331
2025-03-02 2.973243e-05 0.000053 0.000085 0.000129 0.000186 0.000257 0.000349
2025-03-09 2.481598e-05 0.000048 0.000080 0.000127 0.000189 0.000266 0.000368
2025-03-16 2.113607e-05 0.000044 0.000077 0.000126 0.000193 0.000278 0.000391
2025-03-23 1.849297e-05 0.000041 0.000075 0.000127 0.000199 0.000292 0.000417
2025-03-30 1.564069e-05 0.000037 0.000072 0.000126 0.000202 0.000302 0.000437
2025-04-06 1.281976e-05 0.000034 0.000068 0.000123 0.000202 0.000308 0.000452
2025-04-13 1.149044e-05 0.000032 0.000068 0.000125 0.000210 0.000323 0.000480
2025-04-20 8.797369e-06 0.000028 0.000062 0.000121 0.000208 0.000327 0.000494
2025-04-27 7.371523e-06 0.000026 0.000061 0.000121 0.000214 0.000341 0.000521
2025-05-04 5.947716e-06 0.000023 0.000058 0.000120 0.000217 0.000352 0.000544
2025-05-11 5.411399e-06 0.000023 0.000059 0.000125 0.000228 0.000374 0.000582
2025-05-18 4.550438e-06 0.000021 0.000058 0.000126 0.000234 0.000388 0.000610
2025-05-25 3.295916e-06 0.000018 0.000054 0.000121 0.000231 0.000390 0.000621
2025-06-01 2.517015e-06 0.000017 0.000051 0.000119 0.000233 0.000398 0.000640
2025-06-08 1.966331e-06 0.000015 0.000049 0.000119 0.000236 0.000408 0.000663
2025-06-15 1.603352e-06 0.000014 0.000048 0.000120 0.000242 0.000422 0.000691
2025-06-22 1.193664e-06 0.000013 0.000047 0.000119 0.000244 0.000431 0.000712
2025-06-29 8.091725e-07 0.000011 0.000044 0.000116 0.000243 0.000435 0.000726